Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
